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Curmudgeon's Corner

cur-mud-geon: anyone who hates hypocrisy and pretense and has the temerity to say so; anyone with the habit of pointing out unpleasant facts in an engaging and humorous manner

Could It Be? A Landslide?

U.S., Political, Quality of Life, Economy, Employment, Wisconsin

We are virtually at the end of this way-too-long election season.  I will vote traditionally at my polling place on Tuesday sometime in the mid-morning.    I know roughly where I am in terms of voter numbers over the years, so I’ll get a better feel for turn-out of us traditional voters.  My confidence level in the outcome is quite high, considering where it usually is at this time in each major race.  That and a couple of dollars (or more depending upon where I go) will buy me a cup of coffee.

A friend asked me, a couple of weeks ago, what my take was for this race.  I told him that I felt this race was going to Mr. Romney but that I wasn’t as confident of that as to write the prediction in my blog.  I have continued to watch the various polls and listen to those whose job is to make intelligent predictions.  That rules out placing too much trust in people like Karl Rove, although I think he has his ‘stuff’ together in this regard, because he is a political animal and has a dog in the hunt.  Similarly, the paid ‘hacks’ for both parties do not merit my faith and trust in what they have to say.

The polls, barring one or two, have used the 2008 turn-out numbers to decide their tilt in Democrat vs. Republican and that has resulted in predictions using as much as Democrats +11 with a more usual Democrats +7 or +8.  I don’t believe those will be the numbers in this election and, therefore, I do not subscribe to the resulting predictions of those pollsters or polling organizations.  I suspect that real numbers, retrospectively, will have been Democrats +1 or +2 at most.  The enthusiasm level just doesn’t appear to me to be where it was in 2008.  The knowledge we have about early voters in 2012 seems to indicate that the Democrats' trending is significantly lower than it was then.

Those professing to be independents have made up their minds already; they do not remain undecided.  I do not believe the independents are going to be as solidly behind President Obama as they were in 2008.  That likely will turn the tide in some of the ‘swing states’.

I am not a fan of Real Clear Politics and its approach of simply averaging the other major polls and publishing that result as the RCP number.  That takes all the worst parts, the worst assumptions of turnout, of the other polls and simply folds them into the overall.

I know that some are ecstatic about another four years for President Obama since they believe he has much work left to finish.  I am not-at-all ecstatic about that possibility since I believe another four years could well prove to be more than this country and its underlying economics can tolerate.

All that having been said, if my friend was to ask me this morning what I see happening tomorrow, I would tell him this: I believe that Mr. Romney wins the Electoral College vote more decidedly than by just a handful.  He could very well hit the 300 number some are predicting.  I also expect to see the popular vote in the range of 54% to 46% in favor of Mr. Romney.  In other words, I see a landslide.

VOTE IF YOU’VE NOT ALREADY DONE SO!

You can now take your shots and ridicule me if I prove to have been wrong…it won’t be the first time for that to have occurred.  The first time was when Barry Goldwater got whacked.

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